The movie Focus, starring Will Smith and Margot Robbie, delivers an engaging look at anchoring bias—a core decision-making cognitive bias. Anchoring bias stands out among the “Big 5” cognitive biases, alongside confirmation bias, availability bias, representativeness bias, and groupthink. Salespeople frequently use anchoring to guide choices, as it’s fundamental to confidence schemes. Focus brings anchoring bias to life in a thrilling scene. SPOILER ALERT: Movie details follow.
About the author: Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education platform. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.
Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.
The Anchoring Scene: An Unlikely Bet — Or Is It?
A pivotal scene in Focus shows Smith’s character betting on a football game with a high-rolling tycoon. They wager on whether the tycoon and Robbie’s character will pick the same player’s number, “55.” Against steep odds, both pick the same number.
Why the Bet Looks Like a Losing Gamble
The chance of two people randomly selecting “55” out of about 80 players each is around 0.02% — essentially a loss. Knowing Robbie’s character has insider knowledge and chose “55,” the odds improve, but they still sit at only about 1.25%. So, how does Smith’s character pull off the win?
Interpreting the graphic: Each one of the graphic's bars represents a player, grouped into the two football teams. The anchoring effect reduces the number of alternatives (the denominator) to improve the chances the tycoon will pick 55. Going from left to right, as the number of alternatives decreases, the probability of Smith winning the bet increases.
Anchoring Bias Turns the Bet Around
The key to the win lies in Smith’s crafty use of anchoring bias to subtly influence the tycoon’s choice. Before the game, he arranges for “55” to appear repeatedly in the tycoon’s environment, planting the number in his mind. By the time he places his bet, “55” feels familiar, skewing the tycoon’s choices. This scene illustrates anchoring bias in action, much like a car test drive anchoring a buyer to a particular model. In both cases, anchoring minimizes perceived alternatives, improving the chance of a decision in the desired direction.
Anchoring Bias in Real Life
While the scene dramatizes anchoring, it’s a powerful example of how psychological cues shape our choices. To dive deeper into decision-making, biases, and how confidence affects choices, explore:
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