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Writer's pictureJeff Hulett

Leadership and the Art of Emergent Decision-Making

Updated: 10 hours ago


Leadership and the Art of Emergent Decision-Making

In today’s fast-paced corporate environment, everyone feels the pressure of having too much to do and too little time to do it. With each person juggling responsibilities, it can feel simpler—and even more efficient—to be given a decision rather than being asked to actively participate in making one. However, this approach often sacrifices the potential for better choices, especially in complex situations where more than a straightforward answer is required.


The best decisions do not simply come from a top-down directive; they have an emergent quality. Decision stakeholders—such as employees—often hold unique insights and high-value knowledge. Their contributions bring a richness of perspective that, when synthesized, leads to better decision outcomes. Yet, for this emergent quality to take effect, stakeholders must engage in a process allowing their insights to interact, challenge, confirm, and be weighed against those of others. By fostering an emergence-enabled decision process, leaders can unlock the potential of collective insight, making even the most complex decisions clearer, more grounded, and ultimately more impactful.


This article provides a framework for navigating complex decision-making, beginning with six core challenges often hindering effective choices. It then addresses cognitive biases often clouding objectivity, especially in group settings, and explains how overcoming these biases allows the best decision outcome to emerge. A case study on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) illustrates how regulatory groupthink contributed to its failure, highlighting the dangers of unchecked conformity. The discussion then shifts to best practices from M&A and CAPEX strategies, emphasizing the value of structured, inclusive processes. The article concludes by exploring how technology, including tools like Definitive Pro, enables organizations to make faster, data-driven decisions grounded in stakeholder judgment. These solutions provide practical strategies to achieve reliable and strategic outcomes with broad support.


Table of Contents

Introduction

Section 1: Today’s Challenges in Group Decision-Making

Section 2: Cognitive Biases and Their Impact on Group Decision-Making

Section 3: Case Study — Groupthink with Silicon Valley Bank and the Federal Reserve Supervisory Role

Section 4: Overcoming Challenges and Best Practices in Group Decision-Making

Section 5: Technology Solutions for Enhancing Organizational Decision-Making

Conclusion

Resources for the Curious


About the author: Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education platform. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.


Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.


Section 1: Key Challenges in Group Decision-Making


Decision-making within groups is essential for navigating complex organizational challenges, yet it is often impaired by inherent obstacles. Irving Janis, a renowned psychologist and expert in group dynamics, coined the term groupthink to describe how the drive for harmony or conformity can result in irrational or dysfunctional decisions. His work reveals how groups, aiming to maintain unity, may make flawed choices by suppressing dissent and overlooking viable alternatives.


Building on Janis’s insights, six core challenges emerge in group decision-making:


  1. Cultural Pressure to Conform: Organizations often urge groups to reach a consensus quickly, maintaining operational efficiency at the cost of depth. Janis observed that such pressure fosters a mindset prioritizing convenient choices over thorough examination. This dynamic stifles differing views, limiting perspectives and leading groups to accept simplistic but potentially flawed solutions.

  2. Bias Toward Group Harmony: Just as individuals seek instant satisfaction, groups tend to prioritize cohesion, avoiding discussions that may disrupt unity. According to Janis, this “safety in numbers” bias discourages constructive conflict and reduces risk assessments. The group, therefore, becomes more focused on preserving harmony than engaging in robust, forward-looking analysis.

  3. Overconfidence and the Illusion of Invulnerability: While confidence is vital in decision-making, in groups, it can escalate to overconfidence, resulting in a belief of invulnerability. Janis found that groups affected by groupthink might ignore risks, fostering an environment where warning signs go unnoticed. This collective overconfidence leads to decisions that lack the necessary caution and consideration of potential threats.

  4. Data Overload and External Influence: Groups often encounter overwhelming amounts of data, and without clear filters, they may rely on information aligned with external pressures or agendas. Janis noted that selective filtering reinforces assumptions, leading to biased decisions. Today’s information saturation amplifies this issue, making it difficult for groups to identify and focus on the most relevant data.

  5. Self-Interested Group Structures: The architecture of group decisions—such as meeting agendas, protocols, or leadership dynamics—can steer discussions toward pre-set outcomes. Janis highlighted that groupthink is likely when leaders direct conversations to affirm their preferences, which discourages exploration of alternatives. This tendency results in decisions that serve the most influential voices rather than the organization’s collective interests.

  6. Infrequent and Unstructured Decision Processes: Group decision-making is often reactive and infrequent, hindering the establishment of sound decision habits. Janis observed that groups without structured decision-making frameworks are more prone to groupthink, as irregular and unstructured meetings prevent the development of effective processes. Consequently, groups may adopt hasty, surface-level choices rather than comprehensive, emergent solutions.

These structural and social challenges become even more complex when cognitive biases enter the decision-making process. Cognitive biases distort group perception and evaluation, often leading to overconfidence in flawed choices. To further understand this, let’s explore how these biases affect confidence and group dynamics.


Section 2: Cognitive Biases and Confidence in Group Decisions


Building on the foundational challenges in group decision-making, cognitive biases have a major impact on how groups assess information and build confidence in their decisions. These biases affect the reliability of confidence, often leading groups astray. Confidence, described as the "decision emotion," is essential in group decisions, signaling assurance and commitment. Yet, cognitive biases can distort this confidence, pushing groups toward choices that may not serve their best interests. As Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman explain, the human tendency to "think fast" favors immediate emotional responses over slower, logic-driven processes. This predisposition leads to significant cognitive biases, often interfering with clear decision-making.


Four primary cognitive biases—anchoring, representativeness, availability, and groupthink—influence group decisions:


  1. Anchoring Bias: Groups often anchor their discussions around initial information or dominant viewpoints. This bias can restrict exploration by overly relying on early perspectives. For example, in boardrooms, the opinions of senior members often set the stage, limiting openness to new information and alternative perspectives.

  2. Representativeness Bias: This bias occurs when groups rely on stereotypes or oversimplified analogies to guide their assessments. In mergers, for instance, groups may overestimate success by drawing on superficial similarities with past experiences. This tendency can prevent groups from recognizing critical distinctions, leading them to overlook unique aspects of current situations.

  3. Availability Bias: Groups tend to emphasize information that is memorable or recent, even if it’s not the most relevant. For example, recent project outcomes, particularly failures, may overly influence future planning discussions. This bias restricts a group’s ability to objectively assess information, focusing instead on memorable but potentially unrepresentative details.

  4. Groupthink: Irving Janis’s concept of groupthink explains how groups prioritize unity at the expense of constructive dissent. Under pressure, members may suppress doubts to align with the majority, creating an illusion of unanimity and leading to more extreme, risk-prone decisions. Groupthink poses a unique risk, as it undermines the diverse analysis essential to building well-founded group confidence.

These biases can lead to overconfidence based on incomplete or skewed information, creating false assurance in group decisions. By recognizing and addressing these biases, groups can build genuine confidence founded on thorough, unbiased processes. Structuring decision environments to reduce bias helps ensure that confidence reflects well-considered, balanced insights, aligning decisions with the interests of all stakeholders.


The impact of cognitive biases is starkly illustrated in real-world examples where groupthink leads to critical failures. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Federal Reserve’s role in its oversight provides a powerful case study of groupthink’s influence on regulatory decision-making.


Section 3: Case Study — Groupthink with Silicon Valley Bank and the Federal Reserve Supervisory Role


The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure in early 2023 serves as a critical example of groupthink within regulatory bodies, particularly the Federal Reserve’s supervisory team. The Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael S. Barr, highlighted cultural and procedural factors that contributed to the bank’s collapse, revealing how groupthink can pervade even high-stakes regulatory environments. Barr's refreshingly honest recounting of the Fed's supervisory challenges demonstrates how groupthink and related decision-process failures could impact any organization.


In the review of SVB's failure, Vice Chair Barr noted a systemic issue within the supervisory culture. Staff expressed experiencing “pressure to reduce burden on firms” and to “meet a higher burden of proof for a supervisory conclusion.” Though no official policy mandated these standards, the “shift in culture and expectations” indicates a consensus-driven approach typical of groupthink. This unofficial shift led supervisors to ease regulatory actions, favoring a procyclical strategy where oversight weakens during economic expansion—a hallmark of groupthink’s impact on regulatory decision-making.


Groupthink Manifestations in the Supervisory Process


Barr’s comments shed light on key groupthink symptoms, such as:


  • Pressures Toward Uniformity: Supervisory staff felt an unspoken need to align with the prevailing view of reducing the regulatory burden on SVB, even without formal directives. This pressure exemplifies groupthink’s “illusion of unanimity,” where internal discussions shape a shared belief in reducing intervention, regardless of emerging risks.

  • Limited Information Sharing: SVB’s rapid growth, from $71 billion to over $211 billion in assets within two years, introduced new risks. However, the Federal Reserve continued rating SVB as “satisfactory” in governance and liquidity, even as vulnerabilities grew. Barr’s comments reveal that the board and supervisory team were aware of but minimized critical risk factors, consistent with groupthink’s tendency to selectively ignore disconfirming data.

  • Failure to Address Warning Signs: Supervisory teams identified issues with SVB’s interest rate risk management repeatedly from 2020 to 2022. Yet, instead of taking decisive action, they opted to “accumulate supporting evidence in a consensus-driven environment.” The hesitance to downgrade SVB’s ratings reflects an over-reliance on consensus over timely action—a risk-laden outcome of groupthink.


Procyclical Supervision as a Groupthink Outcome


Groupthink influenced a procyclical regulatory approach at the Federal Reserve, encouraging leniency during economic growth rather than enforcing countercyclical measures to guard against potential downturns. In SVB’s case, the emphasis on reducing the supervisory burden led to delayed action on critical risks, including SVB’s reliance on short-term profits over long-term resilience.


The SVB failure illustrates how groupthink within regulatory bodies can distort oversight, creating a bias toward inaction in the face of emerging vulnerabilities. The consequences highlight the importance of structured decision protocols and countercyclical strategies to safeguard against collective conformity. With these insights, we move into best practices for overcoming such group decision challenges.


Section 4: Overcoming Challenges and Best Practices in Group Decision-Making


To counter the effects of groupthink and cognitive biases in group decisions, organizations must adopt structured decision processes that prioritize inclusivity and rigor. Two case studies—one on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and another on budget and capital expenditure (CAPEX) strategy—demonstrate best practices for fostering sound, bias-resistant group decisions.


M&A Example: Process Over Perfection


In mergers and acquisitions, the drive to secure deals can lead to rushed decisions and biased assessments. Jeff Hulett’s article, Process Not Perfection, underscores the need for a structured process in M&A. He emphasizes defining clear criteria, establishing governance, and integrating independent voices to maintain impartiality. This approach counters the risk of “deal fever” and encourages comprehensive evaluations of each alternative.

Key M&A best practices include:


  • Align all team members on defined criteria and evaluation standards.

  • Ensure board and deal team independence to reduce internal bias.

  • Document processes to enhance accountability and support transparency.

  • Implement integration planning to build confidence in the post-deal transition.


Budget Formulation and CAPEX Strategy Example: The OCC Case


At the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), John Sammarco and his team at Definitive Business Solutions supported a hybrid decision model, blending centralized oversight with decentralized autonomy for platform teams. This balance allowed the OCC to set enterprise priorities without stifling the independent judgment of integrated product and platform teams (IPPTs).


Sammarco highlights several practices that enhance collaborative CAPEX planning:


  • Establish and weight selection criteria to reflect strategic goals.

  • Promote cross-functional collaboration to capture diverse viewpoints.

  • Use decision-support tools like Definitive Pro™ for consistent, transparent evaluations.

  • Embrace continuous improvement, adapting processes to evolving needs.


In both examples, prioritizing process over perfection minimizes bias, aligns decisions with strategic goals, and instills confidence. By adopting structured decision-making practices, organizations can transform complex, collective decision-making into a robust, insight-driven process that mitigates groupthink and fosters sustainable outcomes.  Now, we explore how cutting-edge technology, like Definitive Pro, can facilitate these practices on an organizational scale.


Section 5: Technology Solutions for Enhancing Organizational Decision-Making


Definitive Pro offers a powerful solution for organizations aiming to streamline complex decision-making. By integrating data analytics, artificial intelligence, and structured decision models, this platform enables teams to align decisions with strategic objectives and adapt to changing environments.


Empowering Organizations to Make Better Decisions


Definitive Pro addresses the challenges of modern decision-making by offering a comprehensive, data-supported system. This platform eliminates outdated decision tools, encouraging collaboration and prioritizing ideas based on merit.


Key Features of Definitive Pro


  1. Decision Model Development

    Definitive Pro enables standardized decision-making by building customized, weighted models aligned with organizational goals. This approach ensures unbiased, consistent evaluations across projects.

  2. Stakeholder Engagement for Alternatives Analysis

    The platform promotes a collaborative decision environment by including diverse perspectives and analyzing trade-offs, preventing groupthink and ensuring a balanced decision.

  3. Resource and Strategic Optimization

    Definitive Pro’s portfolio management capabilities allow organizations to prioritize projects based on strategic benefit, achieving a 35% greater portfolio benefit by managing resources more effectively.

  4. Generative AI for Efficiency

    With Generative AI, Definitive Pro accelerates project documentation, creating artifacts like business cases and project charters. This feature reduces administrative work and allows teams to focus on high-value analysis.

  5. Full Lifecycle Decision Management

    Definitive Pro supports every project phase, from ideation to benefit realization. Continuous feedback loops help organizations refine strategic models and adapt resources effectively.


Why Choose Definitive Pro?


Definitive Pro distinguishes itself by embedding decision-making at the core of project management, offering features that promote collaboration, reduce bias, and ensure alignment with strategic goals. Key advantages include:


  • 35% Greater Portfolio Benefit: Optimal resource allocation for maximum return on investment.

  • 25% Process Efficiency Improvement: Streamlined project artifact creation with Generative AI.

  • 50% Faster Decisions: Rapid decision model revisions support agility in complex environments.


Streamlined Decision Implementation in Five Steps


  1. Develop a decision model aligned with strategic goals.

  2. Score projects using weighted criteria.

  3. Complete business cases for high-priority projects.

  4. Conduct a value analysis to assess projects based on cost, risk, and benefit.

  5. Optimize portfolio resources to maximize value.


Definitive Pro is more than a project management tool; it is a comprehensive decision-support system that combines advanced technology with structured processes, ensuring that organizations make well-informed, strategically aligned choices.


Conclusion


In today’s fast-paced, complex landscape, the most effective decisions are those that emerge from a collaborative, well-structured process. By incorporating the insights and expertise of diverse stakeholders, organizations can create decision-making environments that foster confidence, minimize biases, and align with strategic goals. The right technology, such as Definitive Pro, can serve as a powerful enabler, bringing together data, human judgment, and AI-driven analysis to streamline and enhance the decision process. When leaders support such emergent processes, they not only drive better outcomes but also build a culture of trust, inclusivity, and adaptability that strengthens the entire organization. With a commitment to structure, transparency, and ongoing improvement, organizations can navigate even the most complex decisions with clarity and purpose.

 

Resources for the Curious


  1. Farmer, J. Doyne. Making Sense of Chaos. MIT Press, 2021.

  2. Janis, Irving L. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. 2nd ed., Cengage Learning, 1982.

  3. Hulett, Jeff. Top 6 Reasons Why Personal Finance Success Starts with Choice Architecture. The Curiosity Vine, October 31, 2023.

  4. Choi, James. Interview with Freakonomics, Are Personal Finance Gurus Giving You Bad Advice? 2022.

  5. Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

  6. Hulett, Jeff. Great Decision-Making and How Confidence Changes the Game. The Curiosity Vine, January 24, 2023.

  7. Johnson, Eric J. The Elements of Choice: Why the Way We Decide Matters. Riverhead Books, 2021.

  8. Schwartz, Barry. The Paradox of Choice. Harper Perennial, 2005.

  9. Sibony, Olivier. You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake. Little, Brown Spark, 2020.

  10. Financial Literacy and Education Commission. Best Practices for Financial Literacy and Education at Institutions of Higher Education. 2019.

  11. Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 1982.

  12. Kahneman, Daniel, Sibony, Olivier, and Sunstein, Cass R. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. Little, Brown Spark, 2021.

  13. Thaler, Richard H., and Sunstein, Cass R. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. Yale University Press, 2008.

  14. Barr, Michael S. Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank. Federal Reserve System, 2023.

  15. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report. Government Printing Office, 2016.

  16. Hulett, Jeff. Process Not Perfection: The Foundation for Better Decisions. The Curiosity Vine, January 2, 2023.

  17. Sammarco, John. Defining the Decision-Making Process. Interview with Definitive Business Solutions, 2017.

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