Headline: Mortgage rates decreased 13bp even though the 10-year Treasury rates decreased 37bp in reaction to the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures. In addition, the annual CPI declined from 6.4% to 6.0%. The CPI improvement announcement occurred on Tuesday and likely was not able to impact mortgage rates which were released less than 48 hours later.
Rates rocket up and feather down. Spreads have now increased to 327bp. While not a record, the last time spreads got this large was November 2022 and mortgage rates feathered down 100bp over the following 12 weeks.
The Fed next meeting is 3.22.23. It remains to be seen if they will follow through with their anticipated 25bp increase.
For the week ending 3.16.23 Mortgage rates DECREASED 13bp to 6.83%.
For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment DECREASED $9 to $654/ mo or $.29 day
While mortgage rates DECREASED 13bp, 10 Year Treasury rates DECREASED 37bp. The net difference resulted in an increase of 24bp in the spread to 327bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 159bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10 Year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently there is a 159bp above the historical norm. For this spread to return to the historical norm, either mortgage rates will decrease further or 10 Year Treasury rates will increase. The last time spreads were this large, mortgage rates feathered down 100bp over the following 12 weeks.
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