Commentary:
The next jobs release is on May 3. April 5 new jobs came in at 303,000. While this was a slightly elevated total, it was comparable to job growth over the past 12 months.
The next CPI release is on May 15 April 10 CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.5%. Energy prices up and the March 2023 data point was very low and it fell out of the annual CPI calc as the new data for March 2024 came in. CPI for March 2024
Next Fed meeting is June 12
For the week ending 5.2.24 Mortgage rates INCREASED 5bp to 7.22%.
For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment INCREASED $3.00 and to $680/mo or $0.11/day.
Mortgage rates INCREASED 5bp while the 10-year Treasury rates DECREASED 12bp for the week ended 5/2/24. The net difference resulted in a 17bp increase in the spread to 264bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 96 bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 96bp above the historical norm.
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