Upcoming releases:
Next new jobs November 1. Oct 4 new jobs created came in at 254k vs prior month 142k
The next CPI release is November 13. Oct 9. The CPI decreased from 2.5% to 2.4%. Expected larger drop muted by food price increases led by egg prices up 10% in one month alone. Avian Flu outbreak 3m birds culled thus far vs 85m in 2022
Next Fed meeting is November 7
For the week ending 10.17.24 Mortgage rates INCREASED 12bp to 6.44%.
For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment increased to $628/mo or $0.26/day.
Mortgages increased 12bp while the 10 Year Treasury did not change for the week ended 10/17/24. Spread increased 12bp to 235bp. With the historical spread being 168 there now exists a “safety cushion” of 67bp above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 67bp above the historical norm.
In July this spread was 150bp. Mortgage rates have decreased for more than the 10-year bond.
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