Upcoming releases:
The next new jobs report will be released on October 4.
The next CPI will be released on October 10.
Next Fed meeting is November 7.
Of interest: The spread of 30 year- to 10 year-Treasuries in July was ~265bp. Take out the historical 168bp and the "cushion" was ~100bp. It is now down to ~60bp. That means the 30 year has dropped more than the 10-year. If the cushion were to disappear, 30 year would be ~5.50%. To get the 30 year down to the price point of 5.00% would entail the 10 year to decrease by 50bp.
For the week ending 10.3.24 Mortgage rates INCREASED 4bp to 6.12%.
For a $100,000 loan, the monthly payment decreased to $607/mo or $0.09/day.
Mortgages increased while the 10-year Treasury rates INCREASED 6bp for the week ended 10/3/24. Spread decreased 2bp to 227bp. With the historical spread of 168, a “safety cushion” of 59bp now exists above the historical spread.
The historic spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is 168pb (see green line, right axis) and currently is 59bp above the historical norm.
In July this spread was 150bp. Mortgage rates have decreased more than the 10-year.
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