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Bill Knudson

Treasury Rates Update: June 6th, 2024

This is not a typo, the 10-year was down 27bp for the week ended 6.6.24.  The 27bp decrease occurred over a multi-day time period indicating the Monthly new jobs total was going to be stable or decrease.  On 6.7.24  new jobs created came in at a robust level of 272,000 compared to the prior month's 175,000.  Get ready for upward pressure and volatility with Treasury rates this coming week. 

 

Upcoming Key Economic Data Release:  

  • The next new job release is 6.7.24.  ( unemployment increased from 3.9% to 4.0%)

  • The next inflation release 6.12.24  (most recent 5.15.24 annual CPI decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%)

  • The Next Fed meeting is 6.12.24   With the robust new jobs, it is unlikely the Fed will lower rates at this meeting.

 

For the past week, 10-year Treasury rates were DOWN 27bp. Net change in 2 weeks is DOWN 15bp.

 

The red line is the most current rate while the green line is one week ago. Longer-term rates decreased more relative to shorter-term rates, as such the inverted yield curve is MORE steep.


For terms 5+ years, the Yield Curve is BARELY positive.


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